Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Jets vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 40.5 (-125) after it opened @ 40.5 (-105).
Pros
- This week’s spread suggests a running game script for the Texans, who are favored by 3 points.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Texans to run on 48.3% of their plays: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- The projections expect the Texans to call the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Dameon Pierce is projected by the projection model to finish in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs with 14.6 rush attempts.
- Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (132 per game) vs. the Jets defense this year.
Cons
- After making up 77.3% of his team’s run game usage last season, Dameon Pierce has played a smaller part in the running game this season, currently accounting for only 55.8%.
- In regards to run-blocking (and the significance it has on all ground game stats), the O-line of the Texans ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year.
- Dameon Pierce’s 43.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows a noteable decline in his running skills over last year’s 71.0 rate.
- Dameon Pierce’s rushing efficiency has declined this year, accumulating a measly 2.99 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.22 rate last year.
- With a lousy rate of 2.30 yards after contact (2nd percentile) this year, Dameon Pierce ranks among the least powerful running backs in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Rushing Yards
62
Rushing Yards
