Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Isaiah LikelyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Ravens vs. Rams
Right now, Isaiah Likely’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Ravens have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by the predictive model to call 66.7 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- In this week’s game, Isaiah Likely is expected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 80th percentile among tight ends with 4.5 targets.
- While Isaiah Likely has received 4.7% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Baltimore’s offense this week at 16.0%.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the Ravens are heavily favored in this week’s game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
- The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Isaiah Likely has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (5.0 per game) than he did last year (26.0 per game).
- Isaiah Likely’s 17.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season signifies a significant regression in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 28.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
29
Receiving Yards
29
Receiving Yards
