Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rachaad WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 14
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Rachaad White’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- This week, Rachaad White is predicted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs with 17.8 carries.
- Rachaad White has been a much bigger part of his team’s ground game this year (61.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (33.7%).
- Rachaad White’s 54.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a substantial gain in his running ability over last season’s 30.0 mark.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.5% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The Buccaneers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
- With a lousy record of 3.66 adjusted yards per carry (24th percentile) this year, Rachaad White has been among the weakest pure rushers in the league at the position.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Rushing Yards
75
Rushing Yards
