Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. DillonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Packers vs. Chiefs
Right now, A.J. Dillon’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).
Pros
- In this week’s contest, A.J. Dillon is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.6 carries.
- The projections expect A.J. Dillon to be a more important option in his team’s rushing attack in this game (62.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (50.4% in games he has played).
- The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 6th-best in the league last year at blocking for rushers.
- This year, the tough Kansas City Chiefs run defense has allowed a feeble 4.58 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 23rd-smallest rate in the league.
- The Chiefs safeties profile as the 31st-worst safety corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
Cons
- This game’s spread implies a passing game script for the Packers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to run on 39.4% of their plays: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The predictive model expects the Packers to run the 7th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Packers have called the 8th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
- A.J. Dillon’s running effectiveness (3.49 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (12th percentile when it comes to running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards
63
Rushing Yards
