Week 13 Player Props: Receiving Yards for David Njoku from EV Insight

David NjokuReceiving Yards

Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-113/-115).

Pros

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The leading projections forecast the Browns to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Browns this year (a monstrous 66.5 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect David Njoku to accumulate 7.5 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The Rams pass defense has shown weak efficiency versus TEs this year, conceding 8.42 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Cons

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Browns to pass on 56.5% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
After totaling 45.0 air yards per game last season, David Njoku has produced significantly fewer this season, now sitting at 25.0 per game.
David Njoku’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 77.2% to 67.5%.
David Njoku’s receiving effectiveness has declined this season, notching just 6.53 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.91 rate last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards