Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Eagles vs. 49ers
Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-139/+102).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-139) after it opened @ 60.5 (-119).
Pros
- Opposing offenses have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in football.
- This week, Brandon Aiyuk is expected by the model to position himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
- Brandon Aiyuk has put up quite a few more air yards this season (95.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more heavily used in his team’s passing offense.
- Brandon Aiyuk has accumulated quite a few more adjusted receiving yards per game (83.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Cons
- This week’s line indicates a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 3 points.
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the 49ers this year (a mere 53.9 per game on average).
- When it comes to protecting the passer (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
