Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Eagles vs. 49ers
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 70.5 (-115) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Eagles to pass on 58.4% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
- The 7th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.3 per game) this year.
- A.J. Brown has notched a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (93.0) this season than he did last season (80.0).
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Eagles to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
- The 49ers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, surrendering 7.63 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.
- The 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.29 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-fewest in the league.
- As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, San Francisco’s LB corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
93
Receiving Yards
93
Receiving Yards
