Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 290.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 290.5 (-110) after it opened @ 280.5 (-114).

Pros

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year.
Tua Tagovailoa has passed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (299.0) this season than he did last season (253.0).
Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 64.0% to 70.0%.
With a terrific 8.76 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Tua Tagovailoa stands among the most effective passers in the league.

Cons

The Dolphins are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by the projection model to call only 64.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 9th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 5th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a lowly 54.8 per game on average).

Projection

THE BLITZ
290
Passing Yards