Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Commanders vs. Dolphins
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 263.5 (-115) after it opened @ 263.5 (-114).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offensive strategy to lean 12.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- This game’s line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 67.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- With a fantastic record of 282.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Sam Howell rates as one of the best QBs in the league this year.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in football vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year (74.3% Adjusted Completion%).
Cons
- Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.
- The Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.44 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in football.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
272
Passing Yards
272
Passing Yards
