Week 13 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell from EV Insight

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the OVER up to 263.5 (-115) after it opened @ 263.5 (-114).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Commanders offensive strategy to lean 12.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
This game’s line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to pass on 67.6% of their opportunities: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.
With a fantastic record of 282.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Sam Howell rates as one of the best QBs in the league this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest rate in football vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year (74.3% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

Right now, the 9th-most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Washington Commanders.
The Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.44 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in football.
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
272
Passing Yards