Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jake FergusonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 13
Cowboys vs. Seahawks
Right now, Jake Ferguson’s receiving yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 35.5 (-110) after it opened @ 37.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The projections expect the Cowboys to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.6% pass rate.
- The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (38.2 per game) this year.
- The leading projections forecast Jake Ferguson to earn 5.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- With respect to a defense’s impact on tempo, the Cowboys defense has caused opposing squads to play 10th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year at 28.19 seconds per snap.
- Jake Ferguson’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 84.5% to 72.8%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
42
Receiving Yards
42
Receiving Yards
