Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marquise BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Marquise Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-107/-122).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Marquise Brown has run a route on 94.5% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
- The predictive model expects Marquise Brown to total 7.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among WRs.
- The Los Angeles Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- At the moment, the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in football (58.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
- Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are anticipated by the projection model to run just 64.1 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
- Marquise Brown’s 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season conveys a substantial decline in his receiving skills over last season’s 60.0 figure.
- The Rams pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58.4%) to wideouts this year (58.4%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
