NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Bengals vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-115) after it opened @ 23.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.48 seconds per snap.
- This year, the anemic Bengals defense has surrendered a staggering 59.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 4th-worst in the league.
- The Bengals pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus TEs this year, yielding 8.49 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in football.
- As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Cincinnati’s collection of safeties has been very bad this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Pat Freiermuth has been a less important option in his team’s passing game this season (9.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.9%).
- After accumulating 50.0 air yards per game last year, Pat Freiermuth has been a disappointment this year, now boasting 16.0 per game.
- When it comes to pass-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.
- Pat Freiermuth’s 13.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 49.0 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
