Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Bengals vs. Steelers
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The projections expect Joe Mixon to accrue 19.3 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
- After making up 68.6% of his team’s carries last year, Joe Mixon has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now comprising 79.7%.
- With an impressive tally of 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (86th percentile), Joe Mixon stands as one of the leading pure rushers in the NFL this year.
- This year, the poor Steelers run defense has given up a massive 127.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 10th-most in football.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in defending against the run, Pittsburgh’s collection of DEs has been very bad this year, projecting as the 9th-worst in the league. in the league.
Cons
- The Cincinnati Bengals may lean on the pass less this week (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jake Browning.
- The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-least run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 32.9% run rate.
- At the present time, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Bengals.
- The Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
- Joe Mixon grades out as one of the worst RBs in the league at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.60 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 22nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Rushing Yards
80
Rushing Yards
