Week 12 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Kyle Pitts from EV Insight

Kyle PittsReceiving Yards

Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-120/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 33.5 (-120) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).

Pros

The model projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 4th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Falcons this year (a staggering 61.9 per game on average).
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
This week, Kyle Pitts is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 90th percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets.
Kyle Pitts grades out as one of the top tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 38.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 79th percentile.

Cons

The projections expect the Falcons as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
After averaging 77.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has been a disappointment this season, now sitting at 61.0 per game.
Kyle Pitts’s 44.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 63.1.
Kyle Pitts’s 2.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season signifies a meaningful drop-off in his effectiveness in space over last season’s 6.6% figure.
The Saints pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.9%) vs. tight ends this year (67.9%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards