NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 3
Michael Cohen
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Titans vs. Panthers
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offensive gameplan to tilt 2.1% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tim Kelly now calling the plays.
- In this contest, DeAndre Hopkins is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 83rd percentile among wideouts with 7.8 targets.
- DeAndre Hopkins has accrued far more air yards this season (116.0 per game) than he did last season (111.0 per game).
- DeAndre Hopkins’s 70.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for wideouts.
- DeAndre Hopkins’s 3.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a substantial gain in his effectiveness in the open field over last year’s 2.2% rate.
Cons
- The Titans are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- The model projects the Titans as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.7 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, totaling the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.7 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
