Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-129) after it opened @ 66.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect Isiah Pacheco to garner 14.5 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
- Isiah Pacheco has been much more involved in his team’s ground game this season (61.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (40.9%).
- Isiah Pacheco has run for many more adjusted yards per game (64.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
- The Las Vegas Raiders defense owns the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 4.76 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to be the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
- The Las Vegas defensive ends project as the best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards
65
Rushing Yards
