College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Giants vs. Patriots
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-109/-118).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-109) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored in this week’s game, implying more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 46.2% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
- Our trusted projections expect the Patriots offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 26.19 seconds per snap.
- In this week’s contest, Rhamondre Stevenson is projected by the predictive model to place in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 16.1 rush attempts.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-most adjusted yards in the league (137 per game) versus the New York Giants defense this year.
Cons
- Rhamondre Stevenson has run for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (59.0).
- Rhamondre Stevenson’s running efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a measly 3.84 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 4.77 figure last year.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has taken a step back when it comes to generating extra rushing yardage this season, notching 2.66 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.81 rate last season.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, New York’s DT corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
