Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 12
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) because they be forced to use backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
- Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Vikings to pass on 61.6% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
- The Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (40.1 per game) this year.
- The projections expect T.J. Hockenson to total 10.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- T.J. Hockenson’s ability to generate extra yardage has worsened this year, averaging a mere 3.96 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 rate last year.
- This year, the fierce Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing tight ends: a measly 3.3 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
