Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Brian Robinson from EV Insight

Brian RobinsonRushing Yards

Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-120) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).

Pros

This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Commanders, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
In this week’s game, Brian Robinson is projected by the model to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to RBs with 16.7 rush attempts.
The New York Giants defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing 4.84 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The predictive model expects the Commanders to be the 4th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.0% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
When talking about opening holes for runners (and the effect it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Washington Commanders ranks as the 9th-worst in the league last year.
Brian Robinson’s 47.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a noteable regression in his running talent over last season’s 63.0 mark.
As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in stopping the run, New York’s group of DTs has been excellent this year, grading out as the best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards