Week 11 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Khalil Herbert from EV Insight

Khalil HerbertRushing Yards

Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-121/-113).

Pros

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to run on 45.9% of their plays: the 6th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 9th-best in the league last year.
Khalil Herbert has generated 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (75th percentile).
Khalil Herbert’s ground effectiveness (4.94 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (87th percentile when it comes to running backs).
With a stellar record of 3.57 yards after contact (92nd percentile), Khalil Herbert ranks as one of the unyielding running backs in football this year.

Cons

This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bears, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Bears to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The predictive model expects Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game in this contest (26.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.2% in games he has played).
This year, the tough Detroit Lions run defense has yielded a puny 77.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 2nd-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Rushing Yards