Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Khalil HerbertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-121/-113).
Pros
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to run on 45.9% of their plays: the 6th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 9th-best in the league last year.
- Khalil Herbert has generated 50.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to running backs (75th percentile).
- Khalil Herbert’s ground effectiveness (4.94 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (87th percentile when it comes to running backs).
- With a stellar record of 3.57 yards after contact (92nd percentile), Khalil Herbert ranks as one of the unyielding running backs in football this year.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Bears, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs.
- Our trusted projections expect the Bears to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The predictive model expects Khalil Herbert to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game in this contest (26.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.2% in games he has played).
- This year, the tough Detroit Lions run defense has yielded a puny 77.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 2nd-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Rushing Yards
34
Rushing Yards
