NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Donald ParhamReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Packers vs. Chargers
Right now, Donald Parham’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 24.5 (-120) after it opened @ 27.5 (-115).
Pros
- At the moment, the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (64.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chargers.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chargers are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- In this game, Donald Parham is predicted by our trusted projection set to land in the 80th percentile among tight ends with 4.7 targets.
- The model projects Donald Parham to be much more involved in his team’s pass attack in this game (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.6% in games he has played).
- This year, the weak Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a massive 7.72 yards.
Cons
- The projections expect the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- This game’s line indicates a running game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
- Opposing QBs teams have been wary to pass too much against the Packers, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.1 per game) this year.
- Donald Parham’s sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 83.6% to 66.3%.
- The Packers defense has allowed the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 42.0) versus TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
