Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Daniel Bellinger from EV Insight

Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards

Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 15.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 15.5 (-115) after it opened @ 15.5 (-105).

Pros

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Giants are giant underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach.
The leading projections forecast the New York Giants to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.9 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Giants have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 60.7 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Commanders defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
This week, Daniel Bellinger is predicted by our trusted projection set to land in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.0 targets.

Cons

The model projects the New York Giants as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
After averaging 12.0 air yards per game last year, Daniel Bellinger has seen a big decrease this year, now boasting 4.0 per game.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the impact it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the New York Giants profiles as the worst in the league this year.
Daniel Bellinger has accumulated many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (13.0) this year than he did last year (27.0).
Daniel Bellinger’s 80.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 91.2% mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards