Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 82.5 (-106) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).

Pros

This week, A.J. Brown is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs with 10.6 targets.
A.J. Brown has posted significantly more air yards this year (132.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point uptick in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, A.J. Brown has been more heavily featured in his offense’s pass attack.
The Philadelphia O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
A.J. Brown’s 108.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a noteable growth in his receiving talent over last year’s 80.0 mark.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Philadelphia Eagles.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game versus the Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
This year, the fierce Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a puny 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-best rate in football.
This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing wide receivers: a mere 7.1 yards.

Projection

THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards