Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 76.5 (-115) after it opened @ 74.5 (-120).

Pros

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
The leading projections forecast Travis Kelce to accrue 9.3 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
Travis Kelce has put up a staggering 62.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Cons

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Travis Kelce’s 73.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates a substantial diminishment in his receiving talent over last year’s 80.0 mark.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Philadelphia’s group of safeties has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards