Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Evans from EV Insight

Mike EvansReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Evans’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-114) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs in this week’s contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
The predictive model expects Mike Evans to accumulate 8.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
With an impressive 70.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (89th percentile) this year, Mike Evans places as one of the top wide receivers in the game in football.

Cons

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards