Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandon Aiyuk from EV Insight

Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-130/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-130) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
In this contest, Brandon Aiyuk is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.3 targets.
Brandon Aiyuk has compiled far more air yards this season (100.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point jump in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Brandon Aiyuk has been more heavily used in his team’s air attack.
Brandon Aiyuk’s 84.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a remarkable progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 63.0 mark.

Cons

With a 13.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards