Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Buccaneers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
Our trusted projections expect George Kittle to garner 5.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile when it comes to TEs.
George Kittle has accumulated quite a few more air yards this season (54.0 per game) than he did last season (41.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point rise in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, George Kittle has been more heavily featured in his team’s pass game.
George Kittle’s 58.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a meaningful improvement in his receiving skills over last year’s 49.0 mark.

Cons

With a 13.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their usual game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.4 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards