Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
49ers vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-115) after it opened @ 232.5 (-115).
Pros
- At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are heavy underdogs in this week’s contest, implying much more of a reliance on passing than their typical game plan.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buccaneers to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the 49ers defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
- As it relates to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Buccaneers grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.
- Baker Mayfield has thrown for a lot more adjusted yards per game (228.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The model projects the Buccaneers to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.0 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- In this contest, Baker Mayfield is expected by the predictive model to total the 9th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 34.0.
- This year, the strong 49ers defense has conceded the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a paltry 6.8 yards.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards
223
Passing Yards
