Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Commanders vs. Giants
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 34.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 61.0% of their chances: the 5th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
- Logan Thomas has totaled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
Cons
- This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Commanders, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
- This year, the fierce New York Giants defense has conceded a measly 61.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in the NFL.
- The Giants linebackers profile as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
