Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Terry McLaurin from EV Insight

Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards

Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-129/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-129) after it opened @ 59.5 (-114).

Pros

The Washington Commanders feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to pass on 61.0% of their chances: the 5th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 130.3 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Terry McLaurin to earn 7.8 targets in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among WRs.

Cons

This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Commanders, who are a huge favorite by 7.5 points.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL.
Terry McLaurin’s pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 8.09 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 9.90 mark last season.
Terry McLaurin’s 3.94 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents a significant decline in his efficiency in the open field over last season’s 5.8% rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards