Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Bills vs. Jets
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
- In this game, Dalton Kincaid is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 96th percentile when it comes to TEs with 7.5 targets.
- While Dalton Kincaid has garnered 16.8% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Buffalo’s pass game this week at 22.5%.
- When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the lofty 75th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a massive 26.0 per game.
- Dalton Kincaid comes in as one of the best pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 43.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 85th percentile.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 125.7 total plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
- The 8th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Bills this year (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).
- Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Jets, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 32.9 per game) this year.
- The New York Jets pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67%) versus TEs this year (67.0%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
