Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 67.5 (-125) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
Our trusted projections expect the Jets offensive scheme to lean 1.1% more towards the passing game than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett now calling the plays.
A throwing game script is implied by the Jets being a -6.5-point underdog this week.
The projections expect the New York Jets as the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The Bills pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (76.5%) vs. WRs this year (76.5%).

Cons

The predictive model expects the Jets to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets this year (only 56.0 per game on average).
The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Garrett Wilson is positioned as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a lowly 7.04 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 21st percentile when it comes to wide receivers
With a lackluster 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Garrett Wilson places as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers in football in picking up extra yardage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards