Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 92.5 (-131) after it opened @ 91.5 (-115).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
The model projects Tyreek Hill to earn 10.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill has been a key part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 32.2% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Tyreek Hill’s 112.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a noteworthy improvement in his receiving skills over last year’s 92.0 figure.
This year, the poor Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed a colossal 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 8th-largest rate in the NFL.

Cons

This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
After averaging 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has significantly declined this season, currently boasting 119.0 per game.

Projection

THE BLITZ
104
Receiving Yards