Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 92.5 (-131) after it opened @ 91.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
- The model projects Tyreek Hill to earn 10.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill has been a key part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 32.2% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
- Tyreek Hill’s 112.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a noteworthy improvement in his receiving skills over last year’s 92.0 figure.
- This year, the poor Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed a colossal 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 8th-largest rate in the NFL.
Cons
- This week’s spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.
- The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 53.3 plays per game.
- After averaging 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has significantly declined this season, currently boasting 119.0 per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
104
Receiving Yards
104
Receiving Yards
