Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Dolphins vs. Raiders
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 64.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 64.5 (-115) after it opened @ 61.5 (-113).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect Josh Jacobs to accumulate 20.6 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has garnered 80.9% of his offense’s rushing play calls this year, putting him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- The Raiders O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in football last year in run support.
Cons
- An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a big -14-point underdog in this game.
- The model projects the Raiders to be the 8th-least run-focused team on the slate this week with a 40.6% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Raiders to call the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (a lowly 53.6 per game on average).
- Josh Jacobs has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (100.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Rushing Yards
88
Rushing Yards
