Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Packers vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-120) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The projections expect the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- This game’s line indicates a running game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chargers are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- In this week’s game, Austin Ekeler is expected by the predictive model to rank in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 16.5 carries.
- This year, the weak Green Bay Packers run defense has been torched for a colossal 136.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 40.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at executing run-blocking assingments.
- Austin Ekeler’s 3.8 adjusted yards per carry this year indicates a meaningful reduction in his running talent over last year’s 4.9 figure.
- With a dreadful total of 2.40 yards after contact (12th percentile) this year, Austin Ekeler has been as one of the weakest running backs in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
