Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Chiefs vs. Eagles
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-136/+105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 274.5 (+105) after it opened @ 280.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The predictive model expects Patrick Mahomes to throw 39.4 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 41.3 pass attempts per game against the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
- Patrick Mahomes comes in as one of the most on-target QBs in the league this year with an impressive 68.5% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 79th percentile.
Cons
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (278.0) this season than he did last season (325.0).
- Patrick Mahomes’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, averaging a mere 7.49 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.54 mark last year.
- This year, the strong Eagles defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in football to the opposing side: a measly 3.8 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
260
Passing Yards
260
Passing Yards
