Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-120) after it opened @ 270.5 (-110).
Pros
- The 5th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Lions this year (a monstrous 62.0 per game on average).
- The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off.
- In throwing a monstrous 38.2 pass attempts per game this year, Jared Goff places among the top quarterbacks in the NFL (86th percentile) by this metric.
- The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
- The Detroit offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Cons
- An extreme running game script is indicated by the Lions being a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
