Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 11
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-115) after it opened @ 254.5 (-115).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Bengals, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
- Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 68.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- In this game, Joe Burrow is expected by the projections to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 40.1.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The projections expect the Bengals offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.87 seconds per snap.
- The Bengals O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Joe Burrow’s 251.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a noteworthy decline in his throwing talent over last year’s 289.0 rate.
- Joe Burrow’s throwing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 66.2%.
- Joe Burrow’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 6.50 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
