Week 11 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 256.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 256.5 (-115) after it opened @ 254.5 (-115).

Pros

This week’s line suggests a passing game script for the Bengals, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 68.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Joe Burrow is expected by the projections to total the most pass attempts among all QBs with 40.1.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The projections expect the Bengals offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.87 seconds per snap.
The Bengals O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Joe Burrow’s 251.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a noteworthy decline in his throwing talent over last year’s 289.0 rate.
Joe Burrow’s throwing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 66.2%.
Joe Burrow’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 6.50 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards