Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bengals vs. Texans
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 18.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 18.5 (-110) after it opened @ 20.5 (-113).
Pros
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- This year, the shaky Houston Texans defense has been torched for a monstrous 61.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-worst in the NFL.
- The Texans pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (80.1%) vs. tight ends this year (80.1%).
Cons
- The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- At the moment, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
- Irv Smith Jr.’s 18.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 25.8.
- With a lackluster 5.3 adjusted yards per target (16th percentile) this year, Irv Smith Jr. rates among the bottom pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.
- With a subpar 3.92 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (20th percentile) this year, Irv Smith Jr. rates as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game in football in picking up extra yardage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
23
Receiving Yards
23
Receiving Yards
