Pros
- Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- This week, Ja’Marr Chase is anticipated by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.6 targets.
- When it comes to air yards, Ja’Marr Chase ranks in the lofty 91st percentile among wideouts this year, accruing a whopping 97.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point growth in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Ja’Marr Chase has been more prominently utilized in his team’s pass game.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- At the moment, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
- Ja’Marr Chase’s 5.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a noteable regression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last season’s 6.6% figure.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston’s CB corps has been terrific this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards