Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Geno SmithPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- At the present time, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (62.9% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 130.2 plays on offense run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- The Commanders defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.8 per game) this year.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (263.0 per game) against the Commanders defense this year.
- This year, the anemic Commanders defense has conceded the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a massive 8.27 yards.
Cons
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
- The 5th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a mere 53.8 per game on average).
- Geno Smith’s 229.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a noteworthy drop-off in his throwing talent over last year’s 255.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards
245
Passing Yards
