Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler LockettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- At the present time, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (62.9% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Seahawks.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 130.2 plays on offense run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- The Commanders defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (38.8 per game) this year.
- The projections expect Tyler Lockett to total 7.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs.
- Tyler Lockett has been a key part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 23.7% this year, which ranks in the 87th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
- The 5th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a mere 53.8 per game on average).
- Tyler Lockett’s 53.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season shows a significant decline in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 65.0 figure.
- Tyler Lockett’s 72.0% Adjusted Completion% this season represents an impressive regression in his pass-catching skills over last season’s 75.8% mark.
- Tyler Lockett’s 7.9 adjusted yards per target this season represents an impressive decrease in his receiving proficiency over last season’s 9.6 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
