Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kenneth Walker IIIRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Right now, Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-125/-104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-104) after it opened @ 63.5 (-113).
Pros
- With a 5.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their normal game plan.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see 130.2 plays on offense run: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
- Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Walker to garner 17.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Kenneth Walker has earned 70.3% of his offense’s rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- Kenneth Walker has grinded out 66.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (91st percentile).
Cons
- The model projects the Seahawks to be the 8th-least run-focused team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 37.1% run rate.
- The 5th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Seahawks this year (a mere 53.8 per game on average).
- The Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in football last year at opening holes for rushers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
83
Rushing Yards
83
Rushing Yards
