Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gerald EverettReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Chargers vs. Lions
Right now, Gerald Everett’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 25.5 (-115) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- In this week’s game, Gerald Everett is projected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 78th percentile among TEs with 4.5 targets.
- The Detroit Lions defense has given up the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (54.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to lean 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- After averaging 31.0 air yards per game last year, Gerald Everett has regressed heavily this year, now boasting 12.0 per game.
- With a RATE1-RATE2 point drop-off in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Gerald Everett has been featured much less in his team’s pass attack.
- Gerald Everett’s 25.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year illustrates a significant diminishment in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 37.0 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards
31
Receiving Yards
