Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Bengals vs. Texans
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- The model projects Joe Mixon to accumulate 16.9 carries in this week’s game, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Joe Mixon has been a more important option in his offense’s ground game this year (80.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (68.6%).
- With a fantastic tally of 61.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (88th percentile), Joe Mixon has been as one of the best RBs in the league this year.
- The Houston Texans defensive tackles rank as the worst group of DTs in football this year with their run defense.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Bengals as the 2nd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- When it comes to blocking for rushers (and the significance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Bengals grades out as the 10th-worst in the league last year.
- The Texans defense has had the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding just 3.50 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
