Week 10 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 272.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 272.5 (-110) after it opened @ 278.5 (-114).

Pros

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The model projects Joe Burrow to attempt 39.7 passes in this contest, on average: the most out of all quarterbacks.
This year, the porous Texans defense has been torched for a massive 258.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 9th-worst in the league.
This year, the weak Houston Texans defense has allowed a colossal 75.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-largest rate in the NFL.

Cons

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
At the moment, the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Joe Burrow has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (248.0) this year than he did last year (289.0).
Joe Burrow’s passing precision has worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 69.4% to 66.1%.
Joe Burrow’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, totaling just 6.43 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.63 rate last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
282
Passing Yards