Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 62.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders offensive approach to lean 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- This week’s spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- The model projects the Commanders as the most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- With regard to a defense’s effect on pace, at 27.44 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- Terry McLaurin’s 8.5 adjusted yards per target this season reflects an impressive decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 9.9 figure.
- Terry McLaurin’s 4.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a substantial diminishment in his effectiveness in space over last year’s 5.8% figure.
- The Seahawks pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in football.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Seattle’s collection of CBs has been excellent this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
