Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brian RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Seahawks vs. Commanders
Right now, Brian Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- With regard to a defense’s effect on pace, at 27.44 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-fastest in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment.
- In this week’s game, Brian Robinson is expected by the projections to finish in the 77th percentile among RBs with 14.1 carries.
- Brian Robinson has received 61.1% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
- The Seattle Seahawks safeties rank as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year with their run defense.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders offensive approach to lean 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
- This week’s spread suggests a passing game script for the Commanders, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
- Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the least run-focused team among all teams this week with a 35.5% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The Commanders O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
- Brian Robinson has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (48.0) this season than he did last season (63.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Rushing Yards
60
Rushing Yards
