Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Cowboys vs. Giants
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 253.5 (-115) after it opened @ 244.5 (-118).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 5.7% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
- Dak Prescott rates as one of the leading QBs in football this year, averaging an outstanding 263.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
- Dak Prescott’s 70.7% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a meaningful improvement in his throwing accuracy over last year’s 65.4% rate.
- Dak Prescott ranks as one of the most effective QBs in football this year, averaging an exceptional 7.94 adjusted yards-per-target while ranking in the 94th percentile.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a heavy 17.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys as the 3rd-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cowboys.
- In this game, Dak Prescott is forecasted by the predictive model to total the 7th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.9.
- Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the New York Giants, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 32.6 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
