Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 10
Ravens vs. Browns
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (+110/-143).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (+110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 130.4 total plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
- Our trusted projections expect Mark Andrews to accrue 7.0 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- With a fantastic 62.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (99th percentile) this year, Mark Andrews rates as one of the leading pass-game tight ends in football.
Cons
- This game’s line indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 6 points.
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.1% of their downs: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in football.
- Mark Andrews’s 23.8% Target% this year illustrates an impressive decrease in his pass attack utilization over last year’s 29.9% figure.
- Mark Andrews has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (55.0 per game) than he did last year (79.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
